Strategic Metal Report

Indium Market Update - September 2017

Since peaking at over US$ 700 per kilogram in 2014, indium prices have steadily declined for three years. Efficiency gains in ITO sputtering and greater recycling of indium, along with increased production from... 

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Gallium Market Update - January 2017

The end of 2016 saw gallium prices rise for the first time in five years. Welcome news for refiners who have been selling the metal at decade-low levels. Yet, there are few reasons to believe gallium prices will continue rising through the first quarter of 2017.

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Minor Metals Market Update - December 2015

The tone among presenters and delegates at this year's Argus Metal Pages China Metals Week (held November 17-19th in Guangzhou, China) was the most subdued since 2009. 

With minor metal prices following the trend of base metals and other commodities over the past twelve months - touching five to ten year lows - there was not much for delegates to be optimistic about. 

Most agreed that the uncertainty that hangs over the indium market as a result of the Fanya Metal Exchange's implosion will not disappear anytime soon. This drag will likely continue so long as the 3600 metric tonnes of indium that Fanya purports to have sitting in warehouses remains embroiled in a feud between investors and the Exchange. 

The Yunnan provincial government authority tasked with investigating Fanya's activities has, itself, already stated that the investigation could take some time. 

Indium Market Update - November 2013

Question: What do indium and Bitcoin have in common?
Answer: Prices for both are being driven by speculative buying in China.

While indium prices may not be up 1000 percent over the past six months, they have risen 30 percent since April, a remarkable run considering that many still believe the market is in oversupply.

The correlation between Bitcoin and indium prices may be explained by the suppressed investment environment in China.

In a country flush with cash, where capital controls restrict overseas investment and the government sets interest rates below the rate of inflation, individuals are desperately searching for alternative investment opportunities. The Fanya Metal Exchange and Bitcoin are just two opportunities, among many, that have moved into this void and been sold to investors not knowing where else to put their renminbi.

Indium Market Update - July 2013

Indium prices have shot up US$ 40-50 per kilogram over the past two weeks based on Chinese speculators heading to North America and Europe to bid on the metal.

Speculators are assuming that the Fanya Exchange (discussed last month) will continue to buy up all Chinese indium production, and by removing this material from the market international prices will increase to fall in-line with current Chinese market prices, which are a still another $30-50 per kilogram above non-Chinese prices.

If speculators are able to secure large amounts of non-Chinese indium, it can be expected that all prices will continue rising.

Gallium Market Update - December 2012

After gallium prices attempted to wake from their slumber in October, market disinterest forced them back down in November. By the end of the month, prices had returned to the US$ 290-310/kg range (FOB 99.99% min.) where they have been for much of second half of 2012.

The story continues to read the much like it did back in the spring: Significant production capacity increases coming on-line at a time of struggling economic growth have resulted in the lowest spot prices seen in years.

Although forecasts remain optimistic about growing demand from gallium's core markets, electronic wafers and LEDs, so far the market has been unable to digest the roughly 100MT per annum increase in production capacity that has recently become available.

Two questions remain: When will greater demand for gallium materialize? And will producers be able to wait out the storm until it does?

Minor Metal Market Update - October 2012

Strategic purchasing and materials being held from the market have pushed prices for many minor metals higher in recent weeks.

Despite high inventories, tellurium prices rebounded in Q3 after nearly a year of steady decline, in large part due to many high purity refiners refusing new offers.

Germanium prices appear to be stabilizing at the start of Q4 after an unanticipated run-up of nearly 70% since April. The jump in prices spurred buying activity - particularly for germanium dioxide - over the summer months.

Indium prices, meanwhile, have been pushed higher by the Chinese State Reserve Bureau's (SRB) purchases of the metal at above market prices. Purchases by the SRB in the second half of 2012 may end-up accounting for as much as 15% of global production this year.

With large inventories to draw on, whether indium's price gains stick will largely be dependent upon how much purchasing activity is seen in the remaining months of 2012.

High inventories of 99.99% gallium continue to drag on prices for the metal. While offer prices increased slightly in Q3, it may be some time before consumption increases to levels high enough to absorb excess inventories that have built up since new production was brought on-line earlier this year.

Indium Market Update - September 2012

Despite high inventory levels in China, the price discrepancy between Chinese and non-Chinese indium looks like it will persist through September. 

While prices for 99.99% indium metal remain around USD 560/kg in China, supported by the recent state stockpiling purchase of 60 metric tonnes, prices elsewhere have been trading between USD 470-500/kg.

Although many Chinese producers are holding inventory of the metal and stocks at the Fanya Metal Exchange in Kunming recently reached record high levels, metal imports have been reported through the summer, as financial exchanges trading indium have sought cheaper sources to meet their inventory requirement levels. 

Germanium Market Update - July 2012

The evolution of the germanium market in 2012 continues to leave a trail of confusion.  Most recently, price increases in June seemed to contradict reports of persistently slow demand from traditional consumers. Let's take a look at some recent developments to see if we can make sense of the influences that are shaping this market.

After sluggish sales drove germanium prices down in the first quarter of 2012, spot sales stagnated between March and June, leaving many expecting prices to continue downward.

Price discrepancies between Chinese-produced germanium and non-Chinese produced materials arose, as competition over the limited number of orders available pushed prices toward their 5-year low. These price discrepancies reflected differences in willingness to accept lower prices between Chinese and non-Chinese producers.

Germanium Market Update - April 2012

Asianmetal.com's annual Indium and Germanium Forum concluded last week in Kunming, China, with the mood amongst germanium producers and traders much more downbeat compared to a year earlier.

With germanium prices dropping again in early April in the face of slow sales, prices have now shed their increases from late 2010 and early 2011.

However, with germanium prices nearing their 2010 nadir, rumblings continue that major Chinese producers may move to increase offer prices in order to stimulate purchasing.

If this is the case, prices can be expected to move upward in May and June. Otherwise, germanium prices may begin to flat-line. Since 2006, germanium sellers have shown repeated resistance to prices below US$ 1000/kg, indicating that they are closing in on production cost values.